2025 is already shaping up to being The Year of the Rookies – and we may still get one more on the grid.
Now that Sauber has signed Bortoletto for 2025 on a multi-year deal, we can definitively say goodbye to Bottas, Zhou and Magnussen.
In my eyes, the final piece of the seat puzzle is now Sergio Perez.
The seat at VCARB will be determined by Red Bull’s decision whether to keep Perez for 2025 or not – and given their recent form, slipping to P3 in the Constructors’ Championship and Perez sitting in P8 in the Drivers’, I don’t think there is much left in the tank for him.
If they keep Perez, that seat goes to Lawson. If they don’t, we get a whole new instalment of Silly Season 2025.
The obvious choice to replace Perez is Lawson – and I think one of the reasons they decided to release Ricciardo after Singapore, was to give Lawson as much preparation as possible, in case he needs to step up in 2025.
Alternatively there is Tsunoda. Tsunoda is in a precarious situation, with the Red Bull Honda relationship coming to an end after 2025 – the same timeline as Tsunoda’s contract.
Tsunoda’s saving grace after 2025 may be if they promote Lawson to Red Bull, leaving an open seat at VCARB. One that could be filled by Hadjar or Iwasa. But I don’t think he’s in play to replace Perez.
Colapinto has also been rumoured for a move to Red Bull – completely out of left field. A rumour I believe is fuelled by the incredible amount of hype surrounding him at the moment.
While Colapinto has performed at a much higher level than I think most of us expected, recency bias is a dangerous thing.
If anything, Colapinto is in the window for a seat at VCARB, up against Hadjar and Iwasa – both of whom have had stronger showings in their recent junior careers, and are already part of the Red Bull system. Not to mention the cost of buying out Colapinto from Williams, who have signed him on a multi-year deal, albeit not for a race seat.
And we can’t rule out Red Bull going for an outside hire, like they did with Perez in the first place.
I doubt we’ll know Red Bull’s plans before early next year, simply because I don’t think they know themselves. But I have a feeling we’re not done with the moves just yet.
